JPMorgan has raised the probability of a global recession in 2025 to 60% due to a significant economic shock, up from 40%.

Impact of Tariffs: The tariffs, described as the largest tax increase since 1968, include a baseline 10% tariff on imports from all countries, with rates as high as 50% for some nations. The new policies are expected to lead to retaliation, a drop in U.S. business sentiment, and supply chain disruptions.

Market Reaction: The announcement of these tariffs caused significant turmoil in the U.S. stock markets, with the Dow Jones plunging over 1,500 points (3.7%), and similar declines in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices.